In John Carpenters 1978 thriller Halloween, Sheriff Leigh Brackett says to Dr. Sam Loomis; "I have a feeling that you're way off on this" speaking about the killer Michael Myers. Dr. Loomis warns the sheriff; "You have the wrong feeling." When it comes to T-SPLOST we should heed Dr. Loomis' warning. T-SPLOST is not what you think it is.

I urge everyone to go to the Georgia Mountains Region 2 Final Constrained Project List. The Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT) forecasts that Forsyth County will collect just under $300.0 million dollars in taxes over the 10 years T-SPLOST is in effect. All dollars are based on 2011. GDOT will return around $40.0 million in discretionary funds to Forsyth County, which shorts the taxpayers 12% or near $36.0 million of our discretionary funds over 10 years. Still Forsyth County does get some value from the non-discretionary TIA projects managed by GDOT.  

Forsyth County has 21 TIA projects valued at $253.3 million with GDOT cost estimates of $327.0 million. This is a ($73.7 million) shortfall that must be made up by local taxes or money from other counties dropped projects. If Forsyth County has all projects funded only 77.46 percent is paid by the T-SPLOST tax. This shortfall can be filled with Debt Bonding by the Commissioners of the discretionary funds or GDOT deleting projects from the list. Most likely early projects will drop out, because collected monies will not adequately build-up until later years. Let's look at the monies and projects in the three phases for Forsyth County.

Phase 1: Ten projects are due to start in years 2013-2015 with a value of $46.0 million. However the GDOT's cost estimate is $78.8, which is ($32.8 million) short.

Phase 2: Five projects are due to start in the years 2016-2019 with a value of $50.2 million. However the GDOT's cost estimate is $66.2, which is ($16.0) short.

Phase 3: Six projects are due to start in the years 2020-2022 with a value of $156.8.  However the GDOT's cost estimate is $181.5 million, which is ($24.7 million) short.

Keep in mind Forsyth County's contributes to the $12,527,872 fee GDOT will take off-the-top region-wide to manage the programs.

(See Figure 2 - Chart of Money Flows)

This is the point where your nightmare begins!

Phase 1 - In the years 2013 to 2015 GDOT predicts Forsyth County will collect $8.0 million in discretionary monies and $43.6 million for TIA projects." [Note: You can't count 2015 in Phase 1, because it takes the entire year to collect those monies.] That's $56.1 million for ten projects costing $78.7 million. That is ($22.6 million) short to complete the first ten projects in Phase 1. 

This is where you wake up in your nightmare!

Phase 2 - In the years 2016-2019 we can now add-in 2015 monies collected. The GDOT estimates Forsyth County will collect $16.0 million in discretionary monies and $65.4 million for TIA projects. That's $81.4 million for projects costing $66.2 million in project costs.  This means you have a surplus for projects in Phase 2 of $15.2 million.  

This is where you are wide-awake in your nightmare!

Phase 3 - In the years 2020-2023 Forsyth County collects $20.0 million in discretionary monies and $87.2 million in TIA for projects. That is $107.2 million for projects costing <sit down please> $181.5 million.  That means you are short ($74.3 million) for Phase 3.  GDOT will drop projects.

This is a whopping shortfall of ($81.7 million) for all ten years from both discretionary funds and non-discretionary TIA projects.  

The Board of County Commissioners is either going to Bond discretionary funds and issue debt for the shortfall to finish all projects, or the GDOT is going to drop projects. Forsyth County has little say on what projects GDOT decide to drop. Your tax collections will go to another county and you will need another ten years of T-SPLOST from a new project list, if you want those projects finished.

As I said wide awake in your worst nightmare.