Forsyth County Crime Profile

Not all counties in Georgia are equal when it comes to violent and property crime rates. Forsyth County is no different. I sorted through the GBI Crime Statistics from 1990 to 2011 to get a read on Forsyth County's reported statistics. Figure #1 graphs violent crime (murder, rape, and assault) in Forsyth County.

The murder rate per 100,000 of population is trending up in Forsyth County. Murder is up 138 percent from 2001 to 2011 over 1990 to 2000. The bulk of that rise was recorded with eight murders in 2005 and six in 2006. The population of Forsyth County is up 15 percent since 2000 and 78 percent since 1990. The real problem is the rates are per 100,000 of population meaning murders are up a staggering amount adjusted for population increases.

Rape is up alarmingly. Rapes are up 54 percent, but assaults are trending down 15 percent from 2001 to 2011 over 1990 to 2000. Compare this to Montgomery County where not one murder has been reported since 1990, only one rape in Webster County since 1990, and only 17 assaults in Glascock County over the same time period. Fulton and Cobb County are reporting declines in assaults 28 percent and 0.2 percent respectively.

Property crime rates are up too in Forsyth County. Figure #2 is a plot of four categories of property crime (robbery, burglary, larceny, and vehicle-theft).

Robbery rates per 100,000 of population is up 57 percent. Burglary rates per 100,000 of population are up a mere 4 percent and vehicle-thefts are down 19 percent. Both most likely reflect the improvements in home security and auto entry technologies. Larceny rates per 100,000 of population is up 9 percent.

Compare that to Bleckley, Lee, and Early Counties where robbery is down 550 percent, 400 percent, and 336 percent respectively; burglary is down 827 percent, 822 percent, and 661 percent in Hart, Dooly, and Marion counties respectively. Vehicle-theft is down in 93 counties in Georgia and larceny is up in 121 counties.

Clearly burglary and auto-theft are affected by home security and auto entry technology advances. Burglary is no doubt affected by the Castle Doctrine Law enacted in 2006, as criminals are wary of breaking into a home with the potential of being shot by the owner.

There is a connection between concealed carry laws and the fall in violent crime. Violent crime is down 40 percent in Georgia since the implementation of concealed carry law in 1996. I believe there is a connection.

Suddenly Safe: The Positive Impact of Georgia's Gun Laws on Crime Rates lays-out the entire case using FBI and GBI crime statistics as reported by the counties.